844 
WTPZ21 KNHC 140847
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212026
0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  99.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  99.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  98.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.5N 100.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.4N 101.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.1N 101.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.0N 102.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 103.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 95NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N  99.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART