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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 072034
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone.  A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt.  A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days.  After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt.  The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds.  After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg