000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192036
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026
 
The system is becoming more consolidated in appearance, with less 
southwest to northeast elongation than seen earlier today.  A 
recent ASCAT pass over the system showed a believable 32-kt surface 
wind vector over the northwest quadrant, and TAFB gave a subjective 
Dvorak T-number of 2.5.  This is in agreement with objective AIDT 
intensity estimates of 35 kt from UW-CIMSS.  Based on this 
information, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Fausto 
on this advisory.  The storm has fairly well-defined upper-level 
outflow over its southern semicircle.

There is still some uncertainty in the center position, but the 
best estimate of initial motion is 285/11 kt.  A mid-tropospheric 
ridge lies to the north of Fausto with a weakness in the ridge, 
associated with departing Tropical Storm Elida, to the northwest.  
The ridge should gradually build back westward in Elida's 
wake.  However, there will probably be just enough remaining 
weakness in the ridge to induce a slightly more northwestward 
motion of Fausto during the next 48-72 hours.  The NHC track 
forecast is a blend of the Google DeepMind and corrected dynamical 
model consensus guidance.

The environment ahead of Fausto looks quite conducive for steady to 
rapid intensification, with low vertical wind shear and a very 
moist low- to mid-level air mass.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification 
(RI) Index shows a significantly higher than normal likelihood of 
RI, and the official intensity forecast explicitly shows RI 
occurring in 24 to 48 hours.  This rapid strengthening could 
occur sooner depending on how soon Fausto develops a 
well-defined inner core.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 12.4N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 13.1N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.2N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.4N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.3N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 16.7N 120.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 121.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 17.6N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.5N 131.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch