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Tropical Depression Felicia Forecast Discussion


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750 
WTPZ41 KNHC 202047
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Felicia Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

Convection once again has mostly dissipated near the low-level 
circulation of Felicia. Without any organized deep convection, the 
clock is now ticking on its remaining lifespan as a tropical 
cyclone. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that was recently received at 
1709 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 32-kt just north of the 
center. Given the lack of convection since that time, as well as the 
latest Dvorak estimates decreasing further, Felicia is being 
downgraded to a tropical depression at this time with maximum 
sustained winds of 30 kt. Further weakening is anticipated as 
Felicia remains in a very dry, stable environment.  The depression 
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in the next 12 hours 
and open up into a trough by the end of the week, well south of 
Hawaii.

The latest estimated motion is now to the west-southwest at 255/14 
kt. The track philosophy has changed little this advisory as a large 
subtropical ridge will continue to steer Felicia to the 
west-southwest over the last few days of its life. The latest NHC 
track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast track 
as the guidance remains tightly clustered along the forecast track. 
On this track, Felicia will be crossing into the central Pacific 
basin within the next few hours.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center 
on Felicia. Future information on this system can be found in 
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center 
beginning at 0300 UTC...under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO header 
WTPA21 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 15.3N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi