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Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Forecast Discussion


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630 
WTNT45 KNHC 190235
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

During the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of
deep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly
winds aloft.  Each convective burst appeared weaker than the
previous one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has
been nearly devoid of deep convection.  Therefore, Joyce no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The
initial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent
ASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt
range. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and
ultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air,
cool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear.

Joyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a
low- to mid-level ridge.  A turn to the southwest is expected on
Wednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and
that motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates.  The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 30.4N  27.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi