494 
FOPZ15 KNHC 171445
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   X(26)   X(26)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 100W       34  X   4( 4)   7(11)  22(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  36(44)  26(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  29(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  47(79)   8(87)   X(87)   X(87)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  41(45)  12(57)   X(57)   X(57)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  10(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
P ANGEL        34  2  18(20)  49(69)   7(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
P ANGEL        50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HUATULCO       34  X   6( 6)  32(38)   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
10N 95W        34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 95W        34  4  31(35)  11(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
15N 95W        50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAPACHULA      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG