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Hurricane Olivia Wind Speed Probabilities


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429 
FOPZ12 KNHC 082049
PWSEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

20N 140W       34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

25N 140W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 145W       34  2   8(10)  14(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)

25N 145W       34  2   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)  24(35)   1(36)   X(36)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  28(34)   2(36)   X(36)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  28(40)   1(41)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   2(20)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   2(22)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   2(22)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  35(39)   3(42)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   3(33)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   4(24)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  12(32)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
21N 158W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  35(39)   3(42)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   6(38)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   7(36)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)
BUOY 51003     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE