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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities


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308 
FONT15 KNHC 190240
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH