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Tropical Storm Olivia Forecast Discussion


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olivia Discussion Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
500 PM HST Thu Sep 13 2018

An earlier flare up of deep convection within the northeast and east
flanks of Olivia caused the low-level center to slow down, then
accelerate off to the west as nearby thunderstorms collapsed. Strong
westerly vertical wind shear of around 35 kt has now displaced the
diminishing convection nearly 90 n mi to the east of the elongated
and fully exposed low-level center. HFO came up with a subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimate of 1.5, while JTWC and SAB are no
longer classifying the system. Given the lack of organized deep 
convection, Olivia is deemed a post-tropical low with an intensity
of 30 kt, and this will be the last advisory.

The initial motion is set at west (260 degrees) at 13 kt. The weak
low-level center was earlier drawn toward a pulsing area of
convection, then recently emerged farther north than expected,
leading to some uncertainty in the initial motion. A low-level ridge
to the north will steer the remnant low of Olivia westward through
tomorrow. Increased interaction with a developing upper-level low
sitting just north of the remnant surface low will cause a turn
toward the west-northwest Friday night and Saturday. The upper-level
low will maintain strong vertical wind shear that should lead to
dissipation of the remnant surface low during the weekend. The
intensity forecast is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.9N 164.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/1200Z 18.8N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 168.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 19.8N 171.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 20.8N 173.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

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