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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Forecast Discussion


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811 
WTPA41 PHFO 050236
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 PM HST Sun Aug 04 2019

For most of the day, satellite images showed that Erick was a
low level cloud swirl. Recent images indicated that a few
thunderstorms have developed around the system. These occasional
pulses of deep convection will be expected to occur as the system
continues to spin down, but with strong vertical shear continuing to
impact Erick, redevelopment is not anticipated. The Dvorak
intensity estimate from PHFO was 1.5/25 kt. SAB and JTWC called the
system too weak to classify. The UW/CIMSS ADT indicated 1.7/27 kt at
05/0000 UTC. An ASCAT-C pass from 2124 UTC showed 25 kt in the
northeast quadrant. Based on these inputs, Erick will be designated
a post-tropical remnant low with an intensity of 25 kt.

The center of Erick has been moving at 280/10 kt within a low level
steering current. This general motion is expected to continue
through dissipation over the next day or so. The forecast track for
the remnant low was nudged slightly south because of a more westward
initial motion and is close to the TVCN, GFEX, and HCCA guidance.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Erick. Additional information on this system can be found
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.2N 169.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/1200Z 19.6N 170.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0000Z 19.8N 171.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama