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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025
 
Mario has not produced any deep convection for more than 12 hours.  
The system is now over sea-surface temperatures of 23C and 
southwesterly wind shear is increasing.  All guidance is in good 
agreement that the remnant low of Mario will continue to weaken and 
dissipate on Thursday.

The remnant low of Mario is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this 
general motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in 
forward speed until dissipation, as Mario is steered by the 
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit to 
the northeast, or right, of the previous forecast, closer to most 
of the latest consensus models.
 
While the remnant low of Mario is forecast to dissipate well to
the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther
north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid
to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash
flooding will be possible by Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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