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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
 
After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a 
weakening trend.  There has been a dramatic decrease in the 
coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making 
Dvorak classifications problematic.  The lastest subjective and 
objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory 
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt.  Given the decrease in 
convection, this may be a generous estimate.  Hopefully an upcoming 
scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of 
the cyclone.

There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best 
estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt.  Mario should continue to 
move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure 
system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of 
days.  The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of 
the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model, 
HCCA, guidance.

Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next 
couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below     
24 deg C by late tomorrow.  Moreover, increasingly strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system 
for the next 48 hours.  The official forecast calls for the system 
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current 
trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than 
that.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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