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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a
weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the
coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making
Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and
objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in
convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming
scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of
the cyclone.
There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best
estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to
move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure
system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of
days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of
the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model,
HCCA, guidance.
Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next
couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below
24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system
for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current
trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than
that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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