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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

The satellite presentation has improved with Mario during the day, 
with a more circular central dense overcast and consistent 
convection.  A recent 1838Z GPM microwave pass also shows the 
development of some inner-core features.  Subjective and objective 
Dvorak estimates range from 45-65 kt, a bit higher than earlier, so 
the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. 
 
Mario is now moving northwestward (305/11 kt), steered between a 
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its 
northwest.  The most notable thing about the track forecast is what 
happens when Mario becomes a remnant low in a couple of days.  
Model guidance has been leaning more to the northeast during the 
past few cycles as they seem to have caught onto a more vertically 
intact Mario.  While the new official forecast has been shifted to 
the north, it remains on the western side of the model consensus, 
closest to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions. 

The intensity forecast is a little tricky for Mario with it soon 
crossing into cooler waters with higher shear.  While the forecast 
shows weakening, it could hang on a bit stronger in the short-term 
if it is able to take advantage of its primitive inner-core.  Mario 
should begin to weaken in earnest on Tuesday when it gets over cold 
waters with much higher shear, causing it to lose convection in 
about 36 h and totally dissipate by 72h.  The new intensity forecast 
is similar to the previous one, between the model consensus and the 
HFIP Corrected Consensus model HCCA.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam
 
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