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Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024
 
Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite
imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared
and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface
observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained
winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb
as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with
subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range
are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making
Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season.
 
Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 
285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to 
continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains 
influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not 
changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the 
NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction.
 
The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the 
next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to 
moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the 
NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 
hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface 
temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the 
environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, 
weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the 
system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection 
by the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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