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Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Thu Aug 29 2024
 
Hone has been nearly devoid of deep convection since about 2300
UTC, and the low level circulation center has been fully exposed
for the last several hours. ASCAT-C at 2051 UTC sampled 30 kt winds
to the north of the low level center. The subjective intensity
estimates were 2.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and 2.5 from SAB. The
objective Dvorak estimates have also been trending downward. Thus 
the intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and Hone is a 
tropical depression once again.
 
Both the track and the intensity forecast remain quite challenging
for mischievous Hone. Hone has been persistently moving 
west-northwest on its trek across the central Pacific, and the 
motion for this advisory was 280/7. However, a low aloft, seen in 
water vapor imagery about 270 nm north of Midway Atoll, is expected 
to dig generally southward over the next couple of days. Hone is 
expected to be pulled northwestward toward this feature in about 48 
hours and get entangled with the upper circulation. After Hone and 
the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected to 
resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific, although 
the models differ in forward speed toward the end of the forecast 
period. Despite the rather complex interaction among the two 
features, there is decent agreement in the model guidance through 
the next 3 days or so, and the forecast continues to lie near the 
TVCN consensus guidance. All of this assumes, of course, that 
renewed deep convection in a day or two will allow Hone to gain 
latitude as a deeper system once again.
 
If Hone manages to survive its current battle with 45 kt of 
westerly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, there appears to be an 
opportunity for reintensification. The global models and SHIPS 
guidance suggest that the strong shear currently over Hone will 
eventually relax, and sea surface temperatures at that time will 
also be supportive of strengthening. The global models show deep 
convection reestablishing a warm core with Hone over the west 
Pacific in a few days, once the lower and upper features merge. 
However, there remains considerable spread among the guidance 
in how much Hone is able to restrengthen after that happens. The 
intensity forecast generally follows the trend of IVCN, but it 
should be noted uncertainty is very high by the end of the forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.5N 173.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 21.8N 174.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 22.4N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 23.2N 176.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 24.5N 176.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 25.7N 178.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 26.5N 179.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 27.4N 177.2E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 29.0N 174.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard/Foster
 
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