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TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
1500 UTC FRI NOV 03 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 103.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 103.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z  9.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z  9.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 103.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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