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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023
 
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Las Islas Marias.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located 
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 110.3 West. Norma is moving 
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion should 
continue through this evening, followed by a turn toward the 
northeast and east-northeast with a reduction in forward speed 
tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Norma 
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur 
within the hurricane warning area today. Norma is forecast to move 
toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and move inland 
within the tropical storm watch area by early Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next 
few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves 
over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles 
(220 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California 
Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a 
gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west
coast of Mexico by early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These
rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast
of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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