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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings north of 
Los Barriles to La Paz, and north of Todos Santos To Santa Fe.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.  Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A slower northward 
to northeastward motion is forecast through Saturday followed by a 
turn toward the north-northeast to northeast on Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion 
of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is expected 
during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane 
when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane 
warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical 
storm conditions beginning late tonight.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California 
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las 
Islas Marias today and tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far 
southern portion of California Baja Sur.  These rains will likely 
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in 
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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