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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
 
...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.  Additional
watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn to the 
north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the 
next couple of days.  A slower northward to northeastward motion is 
forecast later this weekend.  On the forecast track, Norma is 
forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on 
Friday night and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near the southern portion of Baja California.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late Friday night.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far 
southern portion of Baja California Sur.  These rains will likely 
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in 
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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