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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Jova continues to weaken as it moves over cooler waters. An earlier
microwave SSMIS pass showed that the inner core of Jova continues to
erode with a secondary eyewall becoming the primary feature. GOES-18
Hi-res 1-minute satellite imagery depicts dry slots continue to work
their way into the inner core of the system. The drier air has also
started to cause breaks in some of the banding features around Jova.
As a result, subjective and objective satellite estimates have been
quickly decreasing. The initial intensity has been set to 85 kt,
which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The hurricane is crossing a sharp sea surface temperature gradient
into much cooler waters. Environmental conditions also become less
favorable over the next few days. The latest NHC forecast continues
to show rapid to steady weakening and is similar to the previous
advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system
becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is now
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time.
Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the
cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern
United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn
westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close to
the previous advisory, and lies near the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 19.8N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.7N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 25.1N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.3N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 24.1N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
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