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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
 
The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this
evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded
by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops
colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a
formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner
core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.
 
The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that 
the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural 
changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity 
fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more 
strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation 
and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path. 
The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h, 
after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova 
moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment. 
Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the 
next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone 
status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be 
mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of 
the forecast period.
 
A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to
the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its
north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered
track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the
previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly
faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the
cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the
shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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