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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
 
A new burst of deep convection has produced a nearly circular 
Central Dense Overcast over Jova's center, although a 0045 UTC 
SSMIS microwave pass showed that the convection favors the 
southwestern portion of the circulation due to moderate 
northeasterly shear.  Still, Dvorak estimates have increased to 
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the various 
objective estimates have recently converged around 60 kt, which 
will be the initial intensity.  Jova's intensity has increased by 
30 kt over the past 24 hours, and thus rapid intensification is 
ongoing.

Jova is situated to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching 
southwest of Mexico, and it continues to move toward the 
west-northwest (290 degrees) at 8 kt.  The track forecast, and the 
forecast track, are both straightforward.  Jova is expected to 
maintain a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern 
periphery of the ridge, but at a faster forward speed as the 
distance between the two features decreases.  No appreciable changes 
were made from the previous NHC forecast except to show a slightly 
faster motion, hedging toward the latest HCCA consensus solution.

The moderate shear over Jova is expected to abate during the next 
6-12 hours.  In addition, water temperatures are between 29-30 
degrees Celsius, mid-level relative humidities are near 80 percent, 
and upper-level divergence is forecast to be strong during the next 
day or two.  All of these ingredients point to a recipe for 
continued rapid intensification, and many of the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS 
thresholds suggest it is likely to persist for another 36 to 48 
hours, with Jova reaching major hurricane strength.  That said, the 
regional hurricane models are much less enthusiastic about Jova's 
continued strengthening and show peak intensities no more than 70-75 
kt.  Given the seemingly conducive environment, the NHC intensity 
forecast continues to favor the stronger solutions, and peaks Jova 
at category 4 intensity in 48 hours.  Colder waters should induce 
weakening by day 3, continuing through the end of the forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 13.2N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 13.9N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 15.6N 115.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 16.8N 117.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 18.1N 120.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.4N 122.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 24.2N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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