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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared
satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of
the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued
over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI
microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and
indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south
than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep
convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level
eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and
objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level
feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure,
the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at
55kt.
The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the
low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around
8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest
motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge
extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences
being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the
re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus
aids.
Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the
climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid
intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity
forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest
to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is
forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean
temperatures inducing a weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
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