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TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.2N 110.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 122.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 12.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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