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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023
 
Dora remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, with the 
tropical cyclone continuing to display annular characteristics. The 
eye has cooled slightly since the previous advisory, but it 
continues to be surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. The latest 
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB were 
both 6.0 (115 kt). Meanwhile, the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT 
estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 112 kt. Using a blend of these 
data the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for this 
advisory.

Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 19 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep 
layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the 
west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone 
rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical 
ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to 
move into the western Pacific basin Friday. The official forecast 
track is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and closely 
aligns with a blend of the consensus and reliable dynamical 
guidance.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear 
conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the 
next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the 
surrounding dry mid-level air. Given the persistent annular 
appearance of Dora during the past several days, the dry mid-level 
air will likely have a difficult time being entrained into the 
system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days, 
before increasing considerably by days 4 and 5. Meanwhile sea 
surface temperatures will change little during the next 24 hours, 
remaining around 27C. Beyond 24 hours however, the SSTs will 
gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat content 
values rising beyond 36 hours as well. The official intensity 
forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next 24 hours, 
with the intensity then held steady through 60 hours. There is the 
potential that Dora could re-intensify in the 36 through 60 hour 
time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC, however this is not 
shown in the intensity forecast. By day 3, vertical wind shear 
should begin to impact the tropical cyclone, with a more drastic 
decline in intensity expected for days 4 and 5 as shear begins to 
overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward the 
intensity consensus guidance through day 3, then trends toward a 
blend of the consensus and dynamical guidance for days 4 and 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 11.5N 156.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 11.4N 159.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 11.5N 163.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 11.9N 166.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 12.5N 170.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 14.7N 177.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 16.9N 177.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 18.5N 171.5E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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