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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near 
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The system is moving 
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northwest to north motion 
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, 
the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina 
through tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, 
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it 
reaches the coast of North Carolina.  Regardless of whether it 
becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring 
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward into Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday.  Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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