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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
 
Margot has become better organized this morning.  The earlier noted 
exposed surface center has become obscured with bursts of deep 
convection while the outflow pattern has become more diffluent in 
the northeast quadrant of the cyclone.  Therefore, the initial 
intensity is raised to 40 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates.
 
Although some northerly shear and dry mid-level air intruding 
from the southwest has slowed the intensification rate, the 
intensity guidance indicates that Margot will become a hurricane 
next week.  In fact, the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable 
by mid-period, although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance 
shows modest southerly shear at the time.  Therefore, the official 
forecast indicates gradual intensification through the entire 
forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast favors the reliable 
multi-model consensus aids, which is just below the Decay SHIPS 
beyond day 3.
 
Margot is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical high over the eastern Atlantic.  A 
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast through early 
Sunday, followed by a turn toward north-northwest to north by late 
Sunday with some reduction in forward speed.  A slight adjustment 
to the right of the previous forecast track was made to hedge 
closer to the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus aid and TVCA simple 
multi-model guidance.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 19.9N  36.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.6N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.7N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 22.8N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.2N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 25.7N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 27.4N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 31.2N  42.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 34.5N  43.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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