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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
 
The satellite presentation of Lee degraded somewhat this morning. 
The small eye has become cloud filled and the overall cloud pattern 
has become more asymmetric. There has been no indication of 
concentric eyewalls so far, and the recent filling appears to be the 
result of some moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear as diagnosed 
by a shear analysis from UW/CIMSS.  Within the past hour or so, the 
small eye has once again become a little better defined.  Both NOAA 
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been in the 
storm this morning.  The NOAA aircraft has measured a peak 8000 ft 
flight-level wind of 143 kt, and the Air Force plane has found peak 
700-mb flight level winds of 132 kt.  SFMR surface estimates have 
peaked in the 130-143 kt range.  The pressure has risen to around 
942 mb.  Using a blend of these data the initial intensity is set at 
135 kt. Fluctuations in intensity like what has occurred this 
morning are not uncommon in intense hurricanes.  Although Lee's 
current intensity is lower than the overnight peak, the hurricane 
remains very powerful.
 
The latest global model guidance suggests that the moderate shear
over the hurricane is likely to continue during the next day or
so. This along with potential eye wall replacement cycles are likely
to result in additional fluctuations in intensity during that 
time, which are very difficult to time and predict.  By later this 
weekend, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more 
conducive and some restrengthening is possible. Regardless of exact 
details of the intensity forecast, confidence is high that Lee will 
remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days.
 
Lee has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The
hurricane should continued to be steered west-northwestward to the
south of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  The
western extent of the ridge is forecast to weaken by early next
week, and Lee's forward speed is expected to slow considerably
around days 3-5. The track guidance continues to be tightly
clustered during the forecast period, and the NHC track is near 
the middle of the guidance envelope.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.
 
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning today.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.
 
3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday.  Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 18.2N  54.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 19.0N  56.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 20.0N  57.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 20.8N  59.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 21.5N  60.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 22.1N  62.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 22.7N  63.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 23.5N  65.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 24.8N  67.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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