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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
 
Lee had been steady state overnight, but there are some signs that 
intensification is beginning to resume.  Satellite images show 
evidence of an eye feature appearing within the central dense 
overcast and fragmented bands that are now filling in around the 
center.  In addition, a better defined inner core seems to be 
taking shape.  The initial wind speed of 70 kt is at the high end 
of the satellite estimates, but if these trends continue, the 
intensity of the hurricane could increase quickly.
 
The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 300/12 kt.  The
hurricane has taken a slight jog to the north during the last few 
hours.  The steering pattern for Lee is straightforward.  A 
subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should 
steer the system west-northwestward during the next several days, 
but the forward speed will likely slow down late in the weekend and 
early next week.  The models have changed little this cycle, and 
there is increasing confidence that the core of Lee will pass to the 
north of the northern Leeward Islands.  However, interests in those 
islands should continue to monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical 
three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi, and the northernmost 
Leeward Islands currently have a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing 
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on the southern side of the 
storm.
 
The environment around the cyclone looks ideal for rapid 
intensification.  The models are in fairly good agreement that 
significant strengthening should begin later today and continue into 
the weekend, when Lee will likely reach its peak intensity.  
Fluctuations in strength are likely from days 3 to 5 due to 
potential eyewall replacements, but Lee is still expected to be a 
dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week.  
The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance in the 
short term given recent trends, but falls to near the middle of the 
guidance envelope from 36 to 120 h.
 
As Lee slowly gains latitude and becomes significantly stronger,
its wind field is forecast to expand.  This is expected to result
in a large area of high seas extending well away from the core of
the system.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday, with 
its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin 
Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week. There is 
the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of 
these islands over the weekend, and interests there should monitor
future updates to Lee's forecast.
 
2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 16.1N  48.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 16.8N  50.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 17.8N  52.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 18.8N  55.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 19.8N  57.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 20.6N  59.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 21.3N  60.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 22.5N  63.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 23.5N  65.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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