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BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
...ORLENE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today.  On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is expected during the next day or 
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it 
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when 
it reaches southwestern Mexico. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, 
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. Hurricane conditions 
are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico 
late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area today through early Monday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.
 
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday:
 
* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10
inches.
* Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches.
 
These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well
as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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