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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022
A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwest coast of Mexico has very slowly become better organized
during the past several days. This system has developed and
maintained a well-defined center today, and while it is still
strongly sheared, the convective organization now appears to be
sufficient to classify it as a tropical cyclone. This is supported
in part by Dvorak classifications of 2.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The initial intensity is based primarily on
scatterometer data from around 18Z that showed peak winds near 40 kt
to the southeast of the cyclone's center.
Madeline is currently drifting slowly northward, but a faster
northward motion is forecast to begin this evening. A broad
mid-level ridge extending from over the Atlantic should be the
primary steering feature for the next 24 h or so, until another
ridge centered over Texas begins to build on Sunday. That should
cause Madeline to turn westward and remain on a westward heading
through at least the middle of next week. All of the
normally-reliable track guidance agrees with this general scenario,
but there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding exactly how
fast Madeline will make its turn.
While all of the track guidance keeps the tropical storm well
offshore of Mexico, this uncertainty will have a big impact on the
intensity forecast since Madeline is forecast to turn westward very
near the 26 degree isotherm. A relatively southerly track will allow
Madeline to strengthen, particularly in the 72-120 h portion of the
forecast period when the wind shear may lessen substantially. On the
other hand, a northern track could cause Madeline to become a
remnant low within the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the multi-model consensus and shows a middle ground scenario
where Madeline moves through an environment that would allow it to
remain a tropical cyclone but not substantially strengthen. Given
the uncertainty in the track guidance and the sensitivity of the
intensity to the exact track, the NHC forecast is not very high
confidence at this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 15.9N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.5N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 20.4N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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