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Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Lester. While the storm still has a sheared appearance, recent
scatterometer data indicate that surface wind speeds have
increased in the southern half of the circulation and show an area
of 30-32 kt winds. Satellite Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
range between 30-35 kt. Given the potential for undersampling in the
satellite winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at
35 kt.
The cyclone is currently moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.
Model guidance agrees that the storm should turn northwestward
shortly within the eastern portion of the monsoonal flow. Over the
next couple of days, Lester is expected to increase in forward speed
as it moves toward the Mexican coast, and the center is forecast to
cross the coastline sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
remains close to the model consensus aids.
Lester is expected to remain embedded in moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear for the next 48 h. Global model guidance
suggests other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as
environmental moisture and sea surface temperatures, should be
conducive for possible strengthening. Therefore, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows gradual strengthening until landfall along the
coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken once it
moves inland over the mountainous terrain.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lester will reach portions of
coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 13.2N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.4N 99.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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