ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
AMSR microwave imagery that arrived after the issuance of the
previous advisory indicated that Javier's center was slightly
northeast of previous estimates. The microwave imagery also showed
that the Tropical Storm still has a broad center, with more recent
visible imagery suggesting that multiple swirls are rotating around
a mean center. Despite the cyclone's broad organization, subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now
support a higher initial intensity of 45 kt. Slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight before Javier moves over much
cooler waters and begins to weaken on Saturday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS, HWRF, and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone
will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in about
36 h, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. No changes of
note were made to the official intensity forecast.
Due to the relocation of Javier's initial position to the northeast,
the NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction.
Otherwise, there has been no change in the thinking behind the track
forecast. The tropical storm appears to have accelerated slightly
and now has an initial motion estimate of 330/12 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Javier
generally parallel to the coast of the Baja California peninsula for
the next day or so. The ridge is then forecast to build westward as
Javier weakens, which should cause the cyclone to turn westward
through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is based on
the latest multi-model track consensus and is near the center of the
guidance envelope.
Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official
track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 23.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NNNN