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Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022
Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level
clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the
surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these
estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression.
Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless
there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system
is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today.
Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being
steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the
system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official
forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is
in line with the new track model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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