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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022
Compared to 24 hours ago, Estelle's cloud shield is more symmetric,
though the coldest cloud-top temperatures have been warming this
evening. The increased symmetry is likely due in part to afternoon
convection that was finally able to wrap around the northern
semicircle of the cyclone, as recently seen on a 0002 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass. This structural change was also likely aided by a
reduction in vertical wind shear today which is now estimated to be
less than 5 kt in the 0000 UTC SHIPS guidance. Dvorak satellite
estimates remain unchanged from earlier today, and given the earlier
peak scatterometer wind retrievals in the 50-52 kt range, the
initial intensity will be maintained at 55 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm continues to track off to the west-northwest,
with the latest motion estimated at 290/12 kt. A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days,
albeit with a gradual bend westward as the cyclone becomes
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
easterlies. Few changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast,
and the current track remains close to the consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.
Estelle is currently crossing the 25C sea surface temperature (SST)
isotherm and even cooler SSTs lie along the storm's path. Even with
the lower vertical wind shear, these cooler waters in combination
with an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere should cause the
cyclone to gradually weaken over the next 24-48 hours. This forecast
is in line with the intensity guidance consensus. Organized
convection is likely to gradually fade away by 48 hours, when
Estelle will be over 21C SSTs, and the latest forecast makes the
system a post-tropical remnant low at that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 20.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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