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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to
the effects of northwesterly wind shear. Satellite infrared
imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of
-80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the
recent reduction of inner core convective organization. This is
between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie.
This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm
gradually. Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross
into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken
the rate of weakening. Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical
by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner. The
official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and
lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance.
The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12
kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. This
synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the
shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The
updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model
guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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