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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Geostationary satellite imagery shows increased convection
on the western and southern sides of Celia's circulation.
However, as the system passed just south of the island of Socorro
yesterday, a weather station did not even measure any sustained
tropical-force-winds. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 40 and 55 kt. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 45 kt to reflect a compromise between all of the
estimates and observations. Celia will move into increasingly
unfavorable environmental conditions, with sea surface temperatures
below 25 C and a dry and stable airmass. Therefore, continued
weakening is expected. The official forecast predicts the system
will be post-tropical by 36 h and a remnant low in two days. This
intensity forecast is lower than most of the model guidance.
Celia is moving west-northwest at about 9 kt, steered by a mid-level
ridge. As the system loses convection and becomes a shallow remnant
low, it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade
winds. The NHC track forecast lies on the southern half of the
guidance envelope partially due to the intensity forecast, assuming
a quicker westward turn for a weaker cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.2N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 21.0N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/0600Z 21.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 23.1N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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