ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
While Celia continues to maintain a relatively symmetric convective
appearance on satellite imagery, the coldest convective cloud tops
are gradually warming as the storm slowly succumbs to cooler ocean
waters underneath. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
still support an initial intensity of 50 kt, though I suspect this
remains generous and hopefully overnight scatterometer data can
provide additional assessment of the wind-field around the storm.
Sea-surface temperatures will continue gradually decreasing as the
system moves into an increasingly stable environment. Thus, gradual
weakening is expected to continue. The latest NHC forecast now
anticipates Celia will lose its remaining convection in about 48
hours, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
intensity forecast shows a bit faster rate of weakening, largely
discounting the recent GFS solutions which unrealistically keep deep
central convection near the center over a very unfavorable
thermodynamic environment.
The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward at a bit faster
pace, or 290/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, as
mid-level ridging should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward
heading. A turn westward at the end of the storm's life is
anticipated as it becomes a shallow remnant low, steered primarily
by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly
identical to the previous forecast, though now shows dissipation in
120 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN