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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's
center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of
deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective
cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that
the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated
intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses
ranging between 35 and 45 kt.
Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States
and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the
west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even
with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is
larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast,
mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is
slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower
than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is
a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the
model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right
side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a
general west-northwestward heading through Monday.
Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of
deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then
drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established
low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the
lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane
strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively
short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C
waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is
anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous
forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during
the middle part of the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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