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Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Blas remains a well-organized hurricane with very cold cloud tops
near the center, some curved banding, and an impressive
upper-level outflow in all quadrants but the northeast. Subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates hold the hurricane's current
intensity at T4.5/75 kt, so the initial intensity will remain at
75 kt for this advisory.
Blas is expected to strengthen further to a peak intensity of 85 kt
in the next 24 h before entering a less favorable environment of
increased easterly vertical shear and cooler waters. The intensity
forecast has changed little compared to the previous NHC
prediction and remains near the higher end of the numerical
guidance, with DSHIPS generally showing the most intensification of
the models.
The initial motion of Blas is estimated to be 290/5 kt. A
well-established 500 mb ridge extending from the southern United
States across Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific should
continue to steer the tropical cyclone on a generally
west-northwestward track for the next few days. As Blas weakens in
the latter part of the forecast period, it is expected to turn
west-southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The
track model guidance is in very good agreement throughout most of
the forecast period with some differences in forward speed later in
the period. The official forecast remains close to the model
consensus and very close to the previous NHC track forecast.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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