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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021
After undergoing a brief convective bursting pattern, thunderstorm
activity in the western semicircle of the Terry's circulation
appears to have morphed into what appears to be a small squall line
that is propagating westward away from the center. Recent
scatterometer data indicated a small patch of 22-kt winds north of
the center, so the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt, keeping
Terry as a marginal tropical depression. The aforementioned ASCAT
data also indicated that Terry's inner-core wind field was elongated
east-to-west and that the low-level center was less defined compared
to 12 hours ago.
A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
Terry westward, or 270/13 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move
generally westward over the next few days with little change to
the general easterly steering flow expected. The new official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies along
the southern edge of the tightly packed track guidance envelope.
Entrainment of dry mid-level air is forecast to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over slightly cooler
water, with that negative combination of environmental parameters
expected to prevent any significant convective organization and
resultant strengthening from occurring. In fact, the latest model
guidance suggests that Terry could devolve into a remnant low or
open up into an inverted trough at any time during the next 72
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, following a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models,
which is a little below the intensity consensus models IVCN and
NOAA-HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 11.8N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 11.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 11.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 11.2N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 10.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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