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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  The
government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and
west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on
Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday.  This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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