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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS. A TROPICAL 
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 107.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
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