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Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021
Olaf made landfall very near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California
Sur, around 0300 UTC based on radar images from Los Cabos and
surface pressure reports from the region. Since then, the radar
data showed that the center crossed the peninsula and re-emerged
just off the southwestern coast a few hours ago with heavy
rainbands continuing to stream northward across the area between
Cabo San Lucas and La Paz. Assuming some weakening over land, the
initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The hurricane continues to move toward the northwest but has turned
more to the left, or 315/11 kt. A strong mid-level high centered
over the southern Rockies is forecast to build westward over the
Pacific during the next few days, which should cause Olaf to turn
westward by 36 hours and then southwestward by 60 hours until the
end of the forecast period. On this track, Olaf will move along
the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur for the next 12-18
hours but then turn westward away from land by tonight. This part
of the forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. There is
some disagreement among the models on how far south Olaf will move
on days 3 through 5 (as a remnant low), and the new NHC forecast
has been nudged southward at those times toward the GFS, ECMWF, and
HCCA model solutions.
Olaf's proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California
peninsula during the next 12 to 18 hours will likely cause
additional steady weakening, and the winds are forecast to fall
below hurricane force by this evening. The storm will then move
over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius when it turns west of
Cabo San Lazaro tonight, which should spur additional weakening.
The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be keeping Olaf's winds too
high for the next day or so, and as a result the NHC intensity
forecast is set below the HCCA consensus aid, closer to the GFS
and ECMWF intensity trends. In fact, model-simulated satellite
imagery suggests that the cold water could cause all of Olaf's deep
convection to dissipate in 36-48 hours, and the cyclone is therefore
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night.
Key Messages:
1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the
Baja California peninsula today, with hurricane and tropical storm
conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur
through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight once
Olaf weakens and turns westward away from land.
2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur today. This will pose a threat of
significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 23.7N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 10/1800Z 24.4N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 11/0600Z 24.7N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 21.0N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 20.5N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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