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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
 
Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning 
with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south 
and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed 
by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner 
core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of 
subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB 
and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate 
was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards 
the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 
290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge 
anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and 
weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs 
southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow 
down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn 
to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the 
forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the 
west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the 
low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC 
track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but 
some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side 
of the guidance envelope.
 
The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast 
to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the 
cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains 
embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at 
least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become 
a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 
hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase 
somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to 
some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, 
weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the 
forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along 
Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during 
the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP 
corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of 
weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment 
becomes increasingly unfavorable.

While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on 
the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a 
Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo 
Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause 
locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
 
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