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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation
of the low pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had
become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to
to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W.
Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better
organized, indicating that development has continued. All three
ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8. Enrique is
currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The
global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next
few days. The track guidance generally responds to this by
forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more
northwestward. After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward.
The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and
HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to
the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the
left side. The official forecast track lies near and is a little
slower than the various consensus models.
The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are
expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm
water in a moist environment. Thus, Enrique is expected to
strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the
weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative.
After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to
weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the
intensity consensus.
While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
few days. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
that area later today. In addition, outer rainbands are expected
to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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