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Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
200 AM PDT Fri Jun 04 2021
Blanca has been devoid of organized deep convection since midday
yesterday, with the last convective burst near the center ceasing
over 15 hours ago. Since that time there have been a few convective
cells noted 120 to 150 n mi east-northeast of the center, but these
have been short lived. This is a big change from this time
yesterday, when a large burst of deep convection developed during
the diurnal maximum close the center of the cyclone. This trend is
indicative of the strong west-southwesterly shear and the dry and
stable atmospheric environment taking their toll on the system.
These hostile environmental factors are not expected to improve,
while the forward path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
cooler waters. Therefore, it is anticipated that persistent deep
convection will not redevelop near the center of the system, and
Blanca is being designated as a remnant low. The low is expected to
gradually spin down and is likely to dissipate within the next few
days. The overnight ASCAT overpasses did not sample the center of
the system, so a blend of the T/CI numbers of 1.0/2.0 from the most
recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB supports maintaining
the advisory intensity at 25 kt.
Over the past 12 hours Blanca has been moving west-northwestward, or
300/06 kt. A turn to the west is expected later this morning as the
shallow system gets caught up in the flow around a low-level ridge
to the north. This westward motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one and is near the multi-model consensus.
This is the last NHC advisory on Blanca. For additional information
on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1800Z 16.4N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 16.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 16.4N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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