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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little
Cayman, and Cayman Brac.
 
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
  
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), 
and this general motion should continue over the next few days.  On 
the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near 
of over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and Western 
Cuba Friday, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of 
Mexico Friday night and Saturday.  The system is forecast to 
approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and 
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Additional strengthening is likely 
over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near major 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO 
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore 
flow along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to 
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.  
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman 
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and 
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. 
 
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall 
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches 
across Jamaica.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated 
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman 
Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and the northeast 
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.  These rainfall amounts may 
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  

Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions 
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, 
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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