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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021
 
Corrected rainfall statement in the Hazard section
 
...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A
CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 60.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace.  Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West.  Grace is
moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h).  A motion
toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands
tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or 
over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near 
or over Haiti Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.  Grace 
is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater 
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and 
Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban 
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8  
inches.  Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream 
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with 
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to 
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into 
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could 
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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