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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021
 
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Dominican Republic.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next several days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight,
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central
Cuba Thursday night and Friday.
 
Dropsonde data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight.
Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.
 
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a
few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief
squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning
Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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