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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
 
...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Bonita 
Beach, Florida.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, 
including Tampa Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North
Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening
situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA 
Doppler weather radars, and surface observations near latitude 
27.9 North, longitude 83.5 West.  Elsa is moving toward just west of 
due north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is 
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the 
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster 
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa 
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later 
tonight and early Wednesday morning.  Elsa is forecast to make 
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday 
morning and then move across the southeastern United States through 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until 
landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves 
inland by late Wednesday morning.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 
from the center.  Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, Florida, 
recently reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations
is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).  A University of South Florida buoy 
recently reported a pressure of 1005.6 mb (29.69 inches) as the 
center of Elsa passed nearby.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast during the next several hours. 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into 
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning 
areas tonight and early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast 
by late Wednesday and along the South Carolina coast Wednesday 
night and early Thursday.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.
 
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:
 
Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.
 
Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
 
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.
 
Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western
and central Florida Peninsula.  The tornado threat will continue on
Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
 
SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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