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Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020
...GENEVIEVE JOGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, especially
over higher terrain.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this short-term
motion will continue for the next few hours. However, a turn toward
the northwest is expected by early Thursday morning, with that
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
tonight and Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected Thursday through Friday.
However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane tonight
and early Thursday while it passes just to the southwest and west
of the southern Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported in
Los Cabos, Baja California Sur.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja
California peninsula through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area later tonight or Thursday
morning, especially over higher terrain.
RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.